Oil Slips on Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire; Gold Rebounds to $4,495 Ahead of NFP

Oil gave back Wednesday's geopolitical gains after Israel and Lebanon agreed to a conditional ceasefire Thursday morning, trimming the Hormuz risk premium that drove Brent above $97. Gold flipped to positive territory as safe-haven demand rebalanced, while copper and iron ore extended their slides on softer Chinese demand signals. Friday's U.S. jobs report is the next market mover; OPEC+ meets Saturday.

June 4, 2026 — Commodity Snapshot (~07:00 UTC)

Gold (front month)

$0.00+0.6%vs prev close

WTI Crude (front month)

$0.00−0.5%vs prev close

Brent Crude (front month)

$0.00−1.1%vs prev close

LME Copper (cash settlement)

$0.00−0.7%vs prev close

SGX Iron Ore 62% (Jul)

$0.00−0.9%vs prev close

CBOT Corn Jul (¢/bu)

0−1.4%vs prev close

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Snapshot: June 4, 2026 (pre-market, ~07:00 UTC)

Commodity	Price	Change	Key driver
Gold (front month)	$4,494.80/oz	+0.62%	Safe-haven rebalancing; ADP beat caps upside
WTI Crude (front month)	$95.50/bbl	−0.54%	Israel-Lebanon ceasefire damps Hormuz fear
Brent Crude (front month)	$96.69/bbl	−1.15%	Same driver; prior close $97.81
LME Copper (cash settlement)	$13,920.50/t	−0.70%	Demand uncertainty; Jun 4 close $6.4902/lb
SGX Iron Ore 62% (Jul)	$102.70/t	−0.93%	China steel margins compressed by coking coal
CBOT Corn (Jul)	425.50¢/bu	−1.39%	10th down session in 11; prior close 431.50¢

Prices as of ~07:00 UTC June 4, 2026. Sources: MarketWatch, Investing.com, energynews.oedigital.com.

Oil: ceasefire takes the edge off Hormuz

Naval vessel patrolling a narrow strait surrounded by steep mountains — Oil tanker at anchor — Brent shed nearly $1 on the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire news. 1

Brent dropped 87 cents (−0.89%) to $96.92 at 04:58 GMT and WTI fell 78 cents (−0.81%) to $95.24, erasing most of the Wednesday rally that had been fueled by Iranian drone strikes on Kuwait International Airport and renewed U.S. strikes near the Strait of Hormuz.1

The trigger: Israel and Lebanon announced a conditional ceasefire, raising trader hopes that the broader U.S.-Iran negotiation could eventually reopen Hormuz to normal shipping — a strait that handles roughly 20% of global seaborne oil.2 The U.S. House of Representatives also moved to limit Trump's war powers, adding a second dampener on oil bulls.1

Prices had gained nearly 10% in the first three sessions of this week, driven by Iran striking Kuwait and Bahrain, so Thursday's pullback still leaves Brent roughly $5 above last Friday's close. The IMF published its 2026 Article IV for Saudi Arabia on June 3, formally conditioning the Kingdom's recovery forecast on Hormuz normalisation — the first time a Gulf-state growth path has been tied to an adversary-held strait.3

OPEC+ meets Saturday June 7. The cartel's June 7 gathering arrives with Saudi Arabia's fiscal gap running at roughly $14/bbl — Q1 2026 deficit reached SAR 125.7 billion, about 76% of the full-year target consumed in the first 90 days.3 That fiscal pressure limits Riyadh's room to absorb further output ramp-ups, even as the IEA has projected a surplus of up to 4 million barrels per day next year on sluggish demand and rising non-OPEC supply.

Relevant equities: Exxon Mobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), ConocoPhillips (COP) are most exposed to WTI moves; BP (BP), Shell (SHEL), TotalEnergies (TTE) to Brent.

Gold: a $28 rebound after Wednesday's rate-fear selloff

Gold futures (GC00) bounced +$27.90 (+0.62%) to $4,494.80, reversing part of Wednesday's slide when Cleveland Fed president Hammack flagged a possible rate hike "in the near future" and the oil rally boosted inflation expectations.4

The overnight recovery looks straightforward: oil's drop reduced the immediate rate-hike story, and the ceasefire rebalanced safe-haven flows back toward gold after they had partially migrated into oil during the crisis spike. LiteFinance tracked the spot price at $4,459 as of 04:00 UTC, down from Wednesday's $4,485–$4,500 range; the MarketWatch front-month future suggests the metal pushed higher through early London hours.

ADP payrolls — released Wednesday — beat at 122,000 jobs (consensus: 117,000), and ISM Services PMI hit 54.5% for a 23rd straight expansion month.5 Both prints support a Fed hold at 3.50–3.75% on June 16–17 (Kevin Warsh's first FOMC), removing one ceiling for gold. The bigger test is Friday's May NFP, consensus 80,000 jobs — a materially stronger number would reopen the rate-hike debate and likely push gold back below $4,450.5

Relevant equities: Newmont (NEM), Barrick Gold (GOLD), Agnico Eagle (AEM).

Copper: soft demand signal, $0.04/lb down on the day

LME copper cash settlement closed $13,920.50/t on June 3; the COMEX front-month contract (HG) traded at $6.4902/lb on June 4, down −0.70% from Wednesday's $6.4948 settle.6 7

No single dramatic driver is at work here: copper is drifting lower on the same broader narrative that has pressured it since the May high, namely that the Hormuz disruption reduces Chinese import appetite and that the tariff-driven front-loading that pushed prices above $14,000 earlier this year has run its course. The copper tariff deadline of June 30 remains an event risk that could sharply tighten U.S. physical supply.

Relevant equities: Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), Southern Copper (SCCO), Boliden (BOL.ST — upgraded last week by Barclays).

Iron ore: six-week low on Chinese steel margins

Coking coal price spike squeezes Chinese steel mill margins, depressing iron ore demand — Oil-field silhouettes at dusk — a proxy for the energy-cost pressure now rippling into Chinese steel margins via coking coal. 2

SGX July iron ore fell −0.93% to $102.70/t, touching an intraday low of $102.50 — the weakest level since April 14.2 On Dalian Commodity Exchange, the most-traded I2609 contract dropped −0.96% to 774.5 yuan/t ($114.32), its weakest since April 20.

The mechanism is a cost-margin squeeze: a May mining accident in Shanxi triggered safety inspections that shut multiple coal mines, driving coking coal up +4.66% and coke up +2.45%. That jump in steelmaking input costs is squeezing blast-furnace margins, which reduces millsʼ appetite for iron ore.2 Meanwhile China's construction sector enters a seasonal demand lull. Rebar on SHFE fell −0.16%, HRC −0.12%, stainless steel −2.02%, all pulling the raw material down.

Relevant equities: BHP (BHP), Rio Tinto (RIO), Fortescue (FMG.AX — shares slipped further into negative territory Thursday).

Corn: 10th down session in 11, testing contract lows

CBOT July corn settled −9¢ at 431.50¢ on Wednesday (prior session) and traded lower still in overnight electronic trade, with the front month quoted at 425.50¢ (−1.39%) as of early June 4.8 That puts the July contract within 2¢ of its contract low.

The driver is simple: consistently favorable U.S. crop weather across the Corn Belt. Soil moisture has been adequate, temperatures are not stressful, and the rapid planting completion reported in USDA's crop progress report has raised early yield estimates. Corn's five-day loss stands at −5.86% and its one-month decline at −9.08% — a supply-story grind with no near-term catalyst to reverse it unless weather deteriorates.

Soybeans are down alongside corn; July beans settled −11.25¢ at $11.54/bu Wednesday.9

Relevant equities: Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM), Bunge Global (BG), CF Industries (CF).

What to watch next

Date	Event	Commodity relevance
Jun 5	May NFP (consensus +80K, unemployment 4.3%)	Gold: strong print reopens rate-hike trade; oil: growth signal
Jun 7	OPEC+ ministerial meeting	Crude: output decision; fiscal gap puts Saudi in a bind
Jun 11	ECB rate decision (near-certain +25bp to 2.25%)	Gold: EUR/dollar dynamic
Jun 17	First FOMC under Kevin Warsh	Gold, copper: rate guidance tone
Jun 30	U.S. copper tariff deadline	Copper: physical supply tightening risk

The binary that matters most in the next 48 hours is NFP Friday: a print above 120,000 would drag gold back toward $4,450 and might lift oil on demand confidence; a miss below 60,000 would likely push gold toward $4,530+ and confirm the Fed-hold narrative. Either way, the Iran-Hormuz thread has not been resolved — the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire is conditional and covers a different front.